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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."