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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position and Settled Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.