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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.