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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still